Stocks edge lower after S&P 500, Dow set record highs

Stocks traded lower Tuesday morning as traders took a pause after a record-setting session on Wall Street, which sent the S&P 500 sailing further above the 4,000 level. 

The S&P 500 and Dow steadied just below record levels Tuesday morning. Both reached record intraday and closing highs on Monday, and all three major indexes including the Nasdaq jumped more than 1%. 

Traders took the start of this week as their first opportunity to react to the Labor Department’s blowout March jobs report from Friday, which was reported during a market holiday. Other recent economic data was similarly strong: An index tracking U.S. service sector activity surged to an all-time high in March, the Institute for Supply Management said Monday. Traders at least temporarily set aside concerns over fast-rising inflation and interest rates, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury note dipped below 1.7%. 

Against an improving economic backdrop, analysts have been expediently raising their estimates for companies’ first-quarter earnings results, with earnings season beginning in just a couple weeks. According to FactSet, first-quarter earnings estimates were increased by a record margin of 6% over the past several weeks, as analysts adjusted their forecasts for the much stronger-than-expected economic rebound seen so far. 

“There have been a lot of false narratives out there that interest rates were going to take the markets lower, that inflation was going to scare the markets, the Fed, and the realization is that, the economy is doing very well,” Larry Adam, Raymond James chief investment officer, told Yahoo Finance. “Not only is the economy doing better, but that’s actually leading to earnings revisions going higher, and that’s taking the market higher. And I don’t think we’re done yet. I think people are going to continue to see the strength of this economy during the summer, and you’re going to see earnings continue to move up significantly throughout this year.”

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Meanwhile, more positive news around the trajectory of the pandemic has also help stoke the risk rally. Though lingering concerns around coronavirus variants and persistent outbreaks in states including Florida remain key concerns, other upbeat data around the pace of vaccinations has served as a counterbalance. 

The vast majority of U.S. states are on track to open vaccine eligibility to all adults before President Joe Biden’s May 1 deadline. An average of more than three million individuals per day are receiving COVID-19 vaccines in the U.S., according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Leisure travel has picked up, with the number of air passengers jumping above 1.5 million per day, according to TSA throughput data. And Southwest (LUV) announced Monday that it recalled 209 pilots on extended leave to be able to meet an expected jump in summer travel demand.

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9:30 a.m. ET: Stocks open slightly lower 

Here’s where markets were trading shortly after the opening bell:

• S&P 500 (^GSPC): -7.24 points (-0.18%) to 4,070.67

• Dow (^DJI): -66.09 points (-0.2%) to 33,461.1

• Nasdaq (^IXIC): -19.92 points (-0.15%) to 13,683.38

• Crude (CL=F): +$1.18 (+2.01%) to $59.83 a barrel

• Gold (GC=F): +$9.00 (+0.52%) to $1,737.80 per ounce

• 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -2.7 bps to yield 1.693%

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9:04 a.m. ET: IMF upgrades 2021 global growth forecast to 6% from 5.5% previously

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) upgraded its forecast for global growth this year amid a better-than-expected outlook for the U.S. and other major economies. The institution now sees worldwide growth increasing 6% this year, up from the 5.5% rise seen previously. This follows a historic contraction of 3.3% in 2020. 

The IMF also raised its 2022 outlook and now sees growth coming in at 4.4%, or 0.2 percentage points above its previous forecast. 

“The upgrades in global growth for 2021 and 2022 are mainly due to upgrades for advanced economies, particularly to a sizable upgrade for the United States (1.3 percentage points) that is expected to grow at 6.4% this year,” Gita Gopinath, chief economist at the IMF, wrote Tuesday. “This makes the United States the only large economy projected to surpass the level of GDP it was forecast to have in 2022 in the absence of this pandemic. Other advanced economies, including the euro area, will also rebound this year but at a slower pace.” 

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7:21 a.m. ET: Credit Suisse estimates $4.7 billion hit from Archegos fallout, announces executive shake-up 

Credit Suisse said Tuesday it expects to take a writedown work 4.4 billion Swiss franc, or $4.7 billion, as of a result of the implosion of Archegos Capital Management, a hedge fund that defaulted on major margin calls several weeks ago. Credit Suisse sold billions of dollars of stocks tied to the family office in recent days.  

Credit Suisse anticipates it will post a loss for the first quarter totaling around 900 million franc, or $960 million. It also said Investment Bank CEO Brian Chin and Chief Risk Compliance Officer Lara Warner will step down, effective immediately. 

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7:11 a.m. ET Tuesday: Stock futures edge lower, giving back some.gains  

Here’s where markets were trading as of 7:12 a.m. ET, ahead of the opening bell: 

• S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 4,060.00, down 7.75 points or 0.19%

• Dow futures (YM=F): 33,375.00, down 40 points or 0.12%

• Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 13,555.75, down 29.75 points or 0.22%

• Crude (CL=F): +$0.78 (+1.33%) to $59.43 a barrel

• Gold (GC=F): +$4.90 (+0.28%) to $1,733.70 per ounce

• 10-year Treasury (^TNX): -0.2 bps to yield 1.7%

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6:02 p.m. ET Monday: Stocks little changed after record-setting session 

Here’s where markets were trading Monday evening: 

• S&P 500 futures (ES=F): 4,069.75, up 2 points or 0.05%

• Dow futures (YM=F): 33,410.00, down 5 points or 0.01%

• Nasdaq futures (NQ=F): 13,603.5, up 18 points or 0.13%

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Emily McCormick is a reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on Twitter: @emily_mcck

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