Slow Gulf financial recovery to have extended-long lasting impact on banks

Economic recovery from the coronavirus disaster in the oil-abundant Gulf location will be sluggish, weighing on the region’s banking sector, S&P International Ratings explained.

Gulf nations fell into a sharp economic downturn final yr as the COVID-19 pandemic impacted vital non-oil financial sectors these kinds of as hospitality, commerce, and actual estate, even though decrease oil selling prices damage condition revenues.

Events like Dubai Expo this calendar year and the Planet Cup in Qatar up coming year, as perfectly as a rebounding oil current market, will deliver some help but progress will remain underneath historical degrees, S&P claimed.

“Certainly, most nations around the world will not return to 2019 nominal GDP before 2023, with an even more time highway for Saudi Arabia,” it explained in a report on Sunday.

Recovery in sectors these as aviation, tourism, and serious estate will choose time, and when vaccination applications are progressing, there are downside pitfalls due to mutations in the novel coronavirus.

These factor swill weigh on bank’s asset excellent with non-accomplishing loans predicted to raise, as effectively as on profitability, with some banks expected to article losses in 2021.

“We think that the steps implemented by most central banking institutions in the location are supportive of liquidity but do not take out or minimize credit chance from the harmony sheet of banking institutions (but),” stated S&P.

“Expense of hazard will continue being elevated adhering to a bounce of 60% in 2020 as banking companies set aside provisions in preparing for additional anxiety.”